EdgeTake

3B · PIT

Nick Gonzales — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
55
Home Runs
1
Per Game
0.02
Projection
0.05
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Nick Gonzales (PIT) has averaged 0.02 home runs per game across 55 games this season, and the last 10 have been hotter at 0.1. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 2% of games this season. We project 0.05, short of the 1.17 market line.

Next matchup

Next: @ HOU — their staff ranks 29 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +750 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Nick Gonzales went over in 1 of 55 2026 games.

Our projection 0.05 vs market line 1.17 — edge -1.12.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.51/552%

Share of 2026 games Gonzales finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.10
Season avg
0.02

Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (30)
0.03
Away (25)
0.00
Home edge
+0.03

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-03-26vs NYM0Under
2026-03-28vs NYM0Under
2026-03-29vs NYM0Under
2026-03-30vs CIN0Under
2026-03-31vs CIN0Under
2026-04-01vs CIN0Under
2026-04-04vs BAL0Under
2026-04-06vs SD0Under
2026-04-07vs SD0Under
2026-04-08vs SD0Under
2026-04-10vs CHC0Under
2026-04-11vs CHC0Under
2026-04-13vs WSH0Under
2026-04-14vs WSH0Under
2026-04-15vs WSH0Under
2026-04-16vs WSH0Under
2026-04-17vs TB0Under
2026-04-18vs TB0Under
2026-04-19vs TB0Under
2026-04-22vs TEX0Under
2026-04-23vs TEX0Under
2026-04-24vs TEX0Under
2026-04-24vs MIL0Under
2026-04-25vs MIL0Under
2026-04-26vs MIL0Under
2026-04-27vs STL0Under
2026-04-28vs STL0Under
2026-04-29vs STL0Under
2026-04-30vs STL0Under
2026-05-01vs CIN0Under
2026-05-02vs CIN0Under
2026-05-03vs CIN0Under
2026-05-06vs AZ0Under
2026-05-07vs AZ0Under
2026-05-09vs SF0Under
2026-05-10vs SF0Under
2026-05-10vs SF0Under
2026-05-12vs COL0Under
2026-05-13vs COL0Under
2026-05-15vs PHI0Under
2026-05-16vs PHI0Under
2026-05-17vs PHI0Under
2026-05-19vs STL0Under
2026-05-20vs STL0Under
2026-05-22vs TOR0Under
2026-05-23vs TOR0Under
2026-05-24vs TOR0Under
2026-05-25vs CHC0Under
2026-05-26vs CHC0Under
2026-05-27vs CHC0Under
2026-05-28vs CHC0Under
2026-05-29vs MIN0Under
2026-05-30vs MIN0Under
2026-05-31vs MIN1Over
2026-06-03vs HOU0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nick Gonzales’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.