EdgeTake

3B · PIT

Nick Gonzales — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
55
Runs
30
Per Game
0.55
Projection
0.45
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Nick Gonzales (PIT) has averaged 0.55 runs per game across 55 games this season, with recent form ahead of that at 0.9 over the last 10. The over on 0.5 has hit in 44% of games. Our projection of 0.45 comes in under the market line of 0.5.

Next matchup

Next: @ HOU — their staff ranks 29 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +135 BetMGMUnder 0.5 -185 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (betmgm), Nick Gonzales went over in 24 of 55 2026 games.

Our projection 0.45 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.05.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.524/5544%
1.55/559%

Share of 2026 games Gonzales finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.90
Season avg
0.55

Over 0.5 in 5 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (30)
0.47
Away (25)
0.64
Home edge
-0.17

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-03-26vs NYM1Over
2026-03-28vs NYM0Under
2026-03-29vs NYM0Under
2026-03-30vs CIN0Under
2026-03-31vs CIN2Over
2026-04-01vs CIN1Over
2026-04-04vs BAL0Under
2026-04-06vs SD0Under
2026-04-07vs SD1Over
2026-04-08vs SD1Over
2026-04-10vs CHC0Under
2026-04-11vs CHC1Over
2026-04-13vs WSH0Under
2026-04-14vs WSH0Under
2026-04-15vs WSH0Under
2026-04-16vs WSH0Under
2026-04-17vs TB0Under
2026-04-18vs TB0Under
2026-04-19vs TB1Over
2026-04-22vs TEX0Under
2026-04-23vs TEX1Over
2026-04-24vs TEX0Under
2026-04-24vs MIL1Over
2026-04-25vs MIL1Over
2026-04-26vs MIL0Under
2026-04-27vs STL1Over
2026-04-28vs STL0Under
2026-04-29vs STL1Over
2026-04-30vs STL0Under
2026-05-01vs CIN1Over
2026-05-02vs CIN1Over
2026-05-03vs CIN0Under
2026-05-06vs AZ0Under
2026-05-07vs AZ0Under
2026-05-09vs SF0Under
2026-05-10vs SF1Over
2026-05-10vs SF1Over
2026-05-12vs COL0Under
2026-05-13vs COL1Over
2026-05-15vs PHI0Under
2026-05-16vs PHI0Under
2026-05-17vs PHI0Under
2026-05-19vs STL2Over
2026-05-20vs STL1Over
2026-05-22vs TOR0Under
2026-05-23vs TOR0Under
2026-05-24vs TOR0Under
2026-05-25vs CHC0Under
2026-05-26vs CHC2Over
2026-05-27vs CHC0Under
2026-05-28vs CHC0Under
2026-05-29vs MIN1Over
2026-05-30vs MIN1Over
2026-05-31vs MIN2Over
2026-06-03vs HOU3Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nick Gonzales’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.