EdgeTake

2B · KC

Nick Loftin — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
29
Runs
12
Per Game
0.41
Projection
0.38
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Nick Loftin (KC) sits at 0.41 runs per game through 29 games, with the last 10 dipping to 0.3. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 34% of games this season. Our projection of 0.38 comes in under the market line of 0.5.

Next matchup

Next: @ MIN — their staff ranks 23 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +162 DraftKingsUnder 0.5 -200 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Nick Loftin went over in 10 of 29 2026 games.

Our projection 0.38 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.12.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.510/2934%
1.52/297%

Share of 2026 games Loftin finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.30
Season avg
0.41

Over 0.5 in 3 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (17)
0.29
Away (12)
0.58
Home edge
-0.29

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-03-29vs ATL2Over
2026-04-01vs MIN0Under
2026-04-04vs MIL1Over
2026-04-05vs MIL0Under
2026-04-20vs BAL0Under
2026-04-22vs BAL0Under
2026-04-24vs LAA0Under
2026-04-25vs LAA2Over
2026-04-26vs LAA1Over
2026-04-29vs ATH1Over
2026-04-30vs ATH0Under
2026-05-04vs CLE0Under
2026-05-06vs CLE0Under
2026-05-07vs CLE0Under
2026-05-08vs DET1Over
2026-05-10vs DET0Under
2026-05-12vs CWS1Over
2026-05-13vs CWS0Under
2026-05-14vs CWS0Under
2026-05-17vs STL0Under
2026-05-19vs BOS0Under
2026-05-20vs BOS0Under
2026-05-25vs NYY0Under
2026-05-26vs NYY0Under
2026-05-30vs TEX0Under
2026-05-30vs TEX1Over
2026-05-31vs TEX0Under
2026-06-01vs CIN1Over
2026-06-02vs CIN1Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nick Loftin’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.