EdgeTake

SS · MIN

Orlando Arcia — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
9
Runs
3
Per Game
0.33
Projection
0.34
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Orlando Arcia (MIN) has averaged 0.33 runs per game across 9 games this season, tracking close to that at 0.33 over the last 10. 33% of those games have finished over 0.5. Our model projects 0.34, below the market line of 0.5.

Next matchup

Next: vs KC — their staff ranks 21 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +212 DraftKingsUnder 0.5 -275 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Orlando Arcia went over in 3 of 9 2026 games.

Our projection 0.34 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.16.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.53/933%
1.50/90%

Share of 2026 games Arcia finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 9 avg
0.33
Season avg
0.33

Over 0.5 in 3 of the last 9 games.

Home / away splits

Home (1)
0.00
Away (8)
0.38
Home edge
-0.38

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-05-19vs HOU0Under
2026-05-23vs BOS0Under
2026-05-24vs BOS1Over
2026-05-25vs CWS0Under
2026-05-26vs CWS0Under
2026-05-27vs CWS0Under
2026-05-28vs CWS1Over
2026-05-30vs PIT1Over
2026-05-31vs PIT0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Orlando Arcia’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.