EdgeTake

1B · AZ

Pavin Smith — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
4
Runs
1
Per Game
0.25
Projection
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Pavin Smith (AZ) has averaged 0.25 runs per game across 4 games this season, with the last 10 steady at 0.25. They've gone over 0.5 in 25% of those games.

Next matchup

Next: vs LAD — their staff ranks 1 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +195 BetMGMUnder 0.5 -275 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (betmgm), Pavin Smith went over in 1 of 4 2026 games.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.51/425%
1.50/40%

Share of 2026 games Smith finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 4 avg
0.25
Season avg
0.25

Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 4 games.

Home / away splits

Home (2)
0.00
Away (2)
0.50
Home edge
-0.50

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-03-28vs LAD1Over
2026-03-29vs LAD0Under
2026-06-02vs LAD0Under
2026-06-03vs LAD0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Pavin Smith’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.