EdgeTake

C · STL

Pedro Pagés — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
35
Runs
11
Per Game
0.31
Projection
0.34
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Over 35 games this season, Pedro Pagés (STL) is averaging 0.31 runs per game, and the last 10 hold near that at 0.3. The over on 0.5 has hit in 31% of games. We project 0.34, short of the 0.5 market line.

Next matchup

Next: vs CIN — their staff ranks 27 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +180 BetMGMUnder 0.5 -235 DraftKings

At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Pedro Pagés went over in 11 of 35 2026 games.

Our projection 0.34 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.16.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.511/3531%
1.50/350%

Share of 2026 games Pagés finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.30
Season avg
0.31

Over 0.5 in 3 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (18)
0.33
Away (17)
0.29
Home edge
+0.04

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-03-26vs TB1Over
2026-03-29vs TB1Over
2026-03-30vs NYM0Under
2026-04-01vs NYM0Under
2026-04-04vs DET0Under
2026-04-05vs DET1Over
2026-04-07vs WSH0Under
2026-04-11vs BOS0Under
2026-04-11vs BOS0Under
2026-04-13vs CLE0Under
2026-04-15vs CLE0Under
2026-04-18vs HOU1Over
2026-04-19vs HOU1Over
2026-04-21vs MIA0Under
2026-04-22vs MIA0Under
2026-04-25vs SEA1Over
2026-04-27vs PIT1Over
2026-04-28vs PIT0Under
2026-04-30vs PIT0Under
2026-05-02vs LAD0Under
2026-05-03vs LAD0Under
2026-05-04vs MIL1Over
2026-05-06vs MIL0Under
2026-05-08vs SD0Under
2026-05-09vs SD0Under
2026-05-10vs SD0Under
2026-05-14vs ATH1Over
2026-05-16vs KC1Over
2026-05-16vs KC0Under
2026-05-19vs PIT1Over
2026-05-21vs PIT0Under
2026-05-23vs CIN0Under
2026-05-25vs MIL0Under
2026-05-27vs MIL0Under
2026-05-31vs CHC0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Pedro Pagés’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.