RF · MIL
Sal Frelick — Runs
2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Sal Frelick (MIL) sits at 0.44 runs per game through 54 games, with the last 10 steady at 0.4. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 37% of games this season. Our projection of 0.55 sits above the market line of 0.5.
Next: vs SF — their staff ranks 24 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Sal Frelick went over in 20 of 54 2026 games.
Our projection 0.55 vs market line 0.5 — edge +0.05.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 20/54 | 37% |
| 1.5 | 3/54 | 6% |
Share of 2026 games Frelick finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 4 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Runs
| Date | Opp | Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs CWS | 2 | Over |
| 2026-03-28 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-29 | vs CWS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-30 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-06 | vs BOS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-07 | vs BOS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-08 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-10 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-15 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-17 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs MIA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-21 | vs DET | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-22 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-24 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-26 | vs PIT | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-28 | vs AZ | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-29 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-30 | vs AZ | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-01 | vs WSH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-02 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-04 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-08 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs SD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-13 | vs SD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-14 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-15 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-18 | vs CHC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-19 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs CHC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-22 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-23 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-26 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-30 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-01 | vs SF | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-02 | vs SF | 1 | Over |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Sal Frelick’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.