EdgeTake

RF · COL

Sterlin Thompson — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
13
Runs
3
Per Game
0.23
Projection
0.37
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Sterlin Thompson (COL) sits at 0.23 runs per game through 13 games, and the last 10 have been hotter at 0.3. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 23% of games this season. We project 0.37, short of the 0.5 market line.

Next matchup

Next: vs MIL — their staff ranks 3 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +188 BetMGMUnder 0.5 -247 DraftKings

At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Sterlin Thompson went over in 3 of 13 2026 games.

Our projection 0.37 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.13.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.53/1323%
1.50/130%

Share of 2026 games Thompson finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.30
Season avg
0.23

Over 0.5 in 3 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (5)
0.00
Away (8)
0.38
Home edge
-0.38

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-05-16vs AZ0Under
2026-05-16vs AZ0Under
2026-05-19vs TEX0Under
2026-05-23vs AZ1Over
2026-05-24vs AZ0Under
2026-05-24vs AZ0Under
2026-05-26vs LAD0Under
2026-05-27vs LAD0Under
2026-05-28vs LAD0Under
2026-05-31vs SF0Under
2026-05-31vs SF0Under
2026-06-02vs LAA1Over
2026-06-03vs LAA1Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Sterlin Thompson’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.