EdgeTake

LF · STL

Thomas Saggese — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
25
Home Runs
1
Per Game
0.04
Projection
0.06
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Thomas Saggese (STL) has averaged 0.04 home runs per game across 25 games this season, with recent form ahead of that at 0.1 over the last 10. 4% of those games have finished over 0.5. We project 0.06, short of the 0.83 market line.

Next matchup

Next: vs CIN — their staff ranks 27 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +850 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Thomas Saggese went over in 1 of 25 2026 games.

Our projection 0.06 vs market line 0.83 — edge -0.77.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.51/254%

Share of 2026 games Saggese finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.10
Season avg
0.04

Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (13)
0.08
Away (12)
0.00
Home edge
+0.08

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-03-29vs TB0Under
2026-04-01vs NYM0Under
2026-04-03vs DET0Under
2026-04-04vs DET0Under
2026-04-05vs DET0Under
2026-04-06vs WSH0Under
2026-04-07vs WSH0Under
2026-04-08vs WSH0Under
2026-04-11vs BOS0Under
2026-04-11vs BOS0Under
2026-04-12vs BOS0Under
2026-04-13vs CLE0Under
2026-04-14vs CLE0Under
2026-04-20vs MIA0Under
2026-04-22vs MIA0Under
2026-04-27vs PIT0Under
2026-05-09vs SD0Under
2026-05-10vs SD0Under
2026-05-13vs ATH0Under
2026-05-16vs KC0Under
2026-05-17vs KC0Under
2026-05-19vs PIT0Under
2026-05-20vs PIT0Under
2026-05-29vs CHC1Over
2026-05-31vs CHC0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Thomas Saggese’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.