EdgeTake

LF · AZ

Tommy Troy — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
8
Home Runs
1
Per Game
0.13
Projection
0.09
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Over 8 games this season, Tommy Troy (AZ) is averaging 0.13 home runs per game, tracking close to that at 0.13 over the last 10. They've gone over 0.5 in 13% of those games. We project 0.09, short of the 0.95 market line.

Next matchup

Next: vs LAD — their staff ranks 1 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +1100 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Tommy Troy went over in 1 of 8 2026 games.

Our projection 0.09 vs market line 0.95 — edge -0.86.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.51/813%

Share of 2026 games Troy finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 8 avg
0.13
Season avg
0.13

Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 8 games.

Home / away splits

Home (3)
0.33
Away (5)
0.00
Home edge
+0.33

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-05-24vs COL0Under
2026-05-25vs SF0Under
2026-05-27vs SF0Under
2026-05-27vs SF0Under
2026-05-30vs SEA0Under
2026-05-31vs SEA0Under
2026-06-02vs LAD1Over
2026-06-03vs LAD0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Tommy Troy’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.