EdgeTake

3B · MIN

Tristan Gray — Hits

2026 hits — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
34
Hits
25
Per Game
0.74
Projection
0.86
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Tristan Gray (MIN) sits at 0.74 hits per game through 34 games, and the last 10 hold near that at 0.8. 59% of those games have finished over 0.5. Our projection of 0.86 sits above the market line of 0.5.

Next matchup

Next: vs KC — their staff ranks 21 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Best price across books

Over 0.5 -115 at BetMGM — model 55% to hit, +2.5% EV.

Over 0.5 -115 BetMGMUnder 0.5 +102 DraftKings

At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Tristan Gray went over in 20 of 34 2026 games.

Our projection 0.86 vs market line 0.5 — edge +0.36.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.520/3459%
1.55/3415%
2.50/340%

Share of 2026 games Gray finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.80
Season avg
0.74

Over 0.5 in 6 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (18)
0.72
Away (16)
0.75
Home edge
-0.03

Per-game hits at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Hits

DateOppHitsvs Line
2026-03-29vs BAL2Over
2026-04-01vs KC1Over
2026-04-02vs KC0Under
2026-04-03vs TB1Over
2026-04-05vs TB0Under
2026-04-09vs DET1Over
2026-04-10vs TOR0Under
2026-04-12vs TOR1Over
2026-04-14vs BOS1Over
2026-04-15vs BOS1Over
2026-04-18vs CIN0Under
2026-04-18vs CIN1Over
2026-04-19vs CIN0Under
2026-04-23vs NYM2Over
2026-04-24vs TB1Over
2026-04-27vs SEA2Over
2026-04-28vs SEA0Under
2026-05-02vs TOR1Over
2026-05-06vs WSH0Under
2026-05-07vs WSH1Over
2026-05-13vs MIA0Under
2026-05-16vs MIL0Under
2026-05-18vs HOU1Over
2026-05-19vs HOU0Under
2026-05-20vs HOU1Over
2026-05-25vs CWS0Under
2026-05-26vs CWS0Under
2026-05-27vs CWS0Under
2026-05-28vs CWS2Over
2026-05-29vs PIT1Over
2026-05-30vs PIT1Over
2026-05-31vs PIT0Under
2026-06-01vs CWS1Over
2026-06-02vs CWS2Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Tristan Gray’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.