EdgeTake

C · CIN

Tyler Stephenson — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
47
Runs
11
Per Game
0.23
Projection
0.36
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Tyler Stephenson (CIN) has averaged 0.23 runs per game across 47 games this season, with recent form ahead of that at 0.4 over the last 10. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 23% of games this season. We project 0.36, short of the 0.5 market line.

Next matchup

Next: @ STL — their staff ranks 18 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +130 BetMGMUnder 0.5 -174 DraftKings

At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Tyler Stephenson went over in 11 of 47 2026 games.

Our projection 0.36 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.14.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.511/4723%
1.50/470%

Share of 2026 games Stephenson finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.40
Season avg
0.23

Over 0.5 in 4 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (23)
0.13
Away (24)
0.33
Home edge
-0.20

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-03-26vs BOS0Under
2026-03-29vs BOS0Under
2026-03-30vs PIT0Under
2026-04-01vs PIT0Under
2026-04-03vs TEX1Over
2026-04-05vs TEX0Under
2026-04-06vs MIA1Over
2026-04-07vs MIA1Over
2026-04-08vs MIA0Under
2026-04-10vs LAA0Under
2026-04-11vs LAA0Under
2026-04-14vs SF0Under
2026-04-15vs SF0Under
2026-04-18vs MIN0Under
2026-04-18vs MIN0Under
2026-04-19vs MIN0Under
2026-04-20vs TB0Under
2026-04-21vs TB0Under
2026-04-24vs DET0Under
2026-04-25vs DET0Under
2026-04-26vs DET0Under
2026-04-28vs COL0Under
2026-04-29vs COL1Over
2026-04-30vs COL1Over
2026-05-01vs PIT0Under
2026-05-02vs PIT0Under
2026-05-04vs CHC0Under
2026-05-05vs CHC0Under
2026-05-06vs CHC1Over
2026-05-07vs CHC0Under
2026-05-08vs HOU0Under
2026-05-10vs HOU0Under
2026-05-12vs WSH0Under
2026-05-13vs WSH1Over
2026-05-15vs CLE0Under
2026-05-16vs CLE0Under
2026-05-17vs CLE0Under
2026-05-18vs PHI0Under
2026-05-19vs PHI1Over
2026-05-22vs STL0Under
2026-05-25vs NYM1Over
2026-05-26vs NYM1Over
2026-05-27vs NYM1Over
2026-05-29vs ATL0Under
2026-05-30vs ATL0Under
2026-06-01vs KC0Under
2026-06-02vs KC0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Tyler Stephenson’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.