2B · COL
Willi Castro — Home Runs
2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Over 50 games this season, Willi Castro (COL) is averaging 0.06 home runs per game, with recent form ahead of that at 0.1 over the last 10. 6% of those games have finished over 0.5. Our model projects 0.08, below the market line of 1.27.
Next: vs MIL — their staff ranks 3 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Willi Castro went over in 3 of 50 2026 games.
Our projection 0.08 vs market line 1.27 — edge -1.19.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 3/50 | 6% |
Share of 2026 games Castro finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs
| Date | Opp | Home Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-28 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-29 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-30 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-07 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs HOU | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-10 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-16 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-21 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-30 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-04 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-08 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-10 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-19 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-22 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-23 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-26 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-28 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-03 | vs LAA | 1 | Over |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Willi Castro’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.