2B · COL
Willi Castro — Runs
2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Willi Castro (COL) has averaged 0.5 runs per game across 50 games this season, while recent form sits lower at 0.4 over the last 10. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 44% of games this season. We project 0.43, short of the 0.5 market line.
Next: vs MIL — their staff ranks 3 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Willi Castro went over in 22 of 50 2026 games.
Our projection 0.43 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.07.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 22/50 | 44% |
| 1.5 | 3/50 | 6% |
Share of 2026 games Castro finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 4 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Runs
| Date | Opp | Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | vs MIA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-28 | vs MIA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-29 | vs MIA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-30 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-31 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-07 | vs HOU | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-08 | vs HOU | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-10 | vs SD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-11 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-16 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs LAD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-21 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs SD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-23 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs CIN | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-30 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-04 | vs NYM | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs NYM | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-08 | vs PHI | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-09 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-10 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs PIT | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-14 | vs PIT | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-16 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs AZ | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-17 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-19 | vs TEX | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-20 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-22 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-23 | vs AZ | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-26 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-28 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs SF | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-31 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs LAA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-03 | vs LAA | 1 | Over |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Willi Castro’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.