EdgeTake

2B · COL

Willi Castro — Total Bases

2026 total bases — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
50
Total Bases
63
Per Game
1.26
Projection
1.18
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Willi Castro (COL) sits at 1.26 total bases per game through 50 games, with recent form ahead of that at 1.7 over the last 10. They've gone over 0.5 in 60% of those games. We project 1.18, about even with the market line of 1.16.

Next matchup

Next: vs MIL — their staff ranks 3 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Best price across books

Under 0.5 +121 at Caesars — model 43% to hit, -5.8% EV.

Over 0.5 -159 CaesarsUnder 0.5 +121 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Willi Castro went over in 30 of 50 2026 games.

Our projection 1.18 vs market line 1.16 — edge +0.02.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.530/5060%
1.521/5042%
2.56/5012%
3.54/508%

Share of 2026 games Castro finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
1.70
Season avg
1.26

Over 0.5 in 8 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (24)
1.46
Away (26)
1.08
Home edge
+0.38

Per-game total bases at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Total Bases

DateOppTotal Basesvs Line
2026-03-27vs MIA0Under
2026-03-28vs MIA1Over
2026-03-29vs MIA2Over
2026-03-30vs TOR2Over
2026-03-31vs TOR0Under
2026-04-01vs TOR0Under
2026-04-03vs PHI2Over
2026-04-05vs PHI0Under
2026-04-05vs PHI1Over
2026-04-07vs HOU2Over
2026-04-08vs HOU6Over
2026-04-10vs SD0Under
2026-04-11vs SD1Over
2026-04-12vs SD0Under
2026-04-15vs HOU0Under
2026-04-16vs HOU2Over
2026-04-19vs LAD1Over
2026-04-21vs LAD2Over
2026-04-22vs SD0Under
2026-04-23vs SD2Over
2026-04-23vs SD0Under
2026-04-29vs CIN3Over
2026-04-30vs CIN0Under
2026-05-02vs ATL0Under
2026-05-03vs ATL1Over
2026-05-03vs ATL2Over
2026-05-04vs NYM1Over
2026-05-06vs NYM1Over
2026-05-08vs PHI2Over
2026-05-09vs PHI4Over
2026-05-10vs PHI0Under
2026-05-12vs PIT0Under
2026-05-13vs PIT0Under
2026-05-14vs PIT0Under
2026-05-16vs AZ0Under
2026-05-16vs AZ2Over
2026-05-17vs AZ2Over
2026-05-19vs TEX4Over
2026-05-20vs TEX0Under
2026-05-20vs TEX0Under
2026-05-22vs AZ1Over
2026-05-23vs AZ2Over
2026-05-26vs LAD2Over
2026-05-27vs LAD2Over
2026-05-28vs LAD0Under
2026-05-30vs SF3Over
2026-05-31vs SF2Over
2026-05-31vs SF1Over
2026-06-02vs LAA0Under
2026-06-03vs LAA4Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Willi Castro’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.