1B · BOS
Willson Contreras — Home Runs
2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Over 56 games this season, Willson Contreras (BOS) is averaging 0.2 home runs per game, while recent form sits lower at 0.1 over the last 10. They've gone over 0.5 in 20% of those games. We project 0.18, short of the 1.12 market line.
Next: vs BAL — their staff ranks 25 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (betonlineag), Willson Contreras went over in 11 of 56 2026 games.
Our projection 0.18 vs market line 1.12 — edge -0.94.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 11/56 | 20% |
Share of 2026 games Contreras finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs
| Date | Opp | Home Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-28 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-29 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs SD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-04 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-06 | vs MIL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-07 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-13 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-17 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs DET | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-20 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-21 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-24 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-26 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-27 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-28 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-01 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-04 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-05 | vs DET | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-07 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-08 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-15 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs ATL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-17 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-18 | vs KC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-19 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-22 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-23 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs MIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-26 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-28 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-29 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Willson Contreras’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.