1B · BOS
Willson Contreras — Runs
2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Over 56 games this season, Willson Contreras (BOS) is averaging 0.46 runs per game, and the last 10 hold near that at 0.5. 41% of those games have finished over 0.5. Our model projects 0.55, a step above the market line of 0.5.
Next: vs BAL — their staff ranks 25 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Willson Contreras went over in 23 of 56 2026 games.
Our projection 0.55 vs market line 0.5 — edge +0.05.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 23/56 | 41% |
| 1.5 | 3/56 | 5% |
Share of 2026 games Contreras finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 5 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Runs
| Date | Opp | Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-28 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-29 | vs CIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-31 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs SD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-04 | vs SD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-05 | vs SD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-06 | vs MIL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-07 | vs MIL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-08 | vs MIL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-11 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-13 | vs MIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-14 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-17 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs DET | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-20 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-21 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-24 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs BAL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-26 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-27 | vs TOR | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-28 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-01 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs HOU | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-03 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-04 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-05 | vs DET | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-07 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-08 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-15 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs ATL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-17 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-18 | vs KC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-19 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs KC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-22 | vs MIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-23 | vs MIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-24 | vs MIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-26 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-28 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-29 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs CLE | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-02 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Willson Contreras’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.