EdgeTake

SS · SF

Willy Adames — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
60
Runs
29
Per Game
0.48
Projection
0.46
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Willy Adames (SF) has averaged 0.48 runs per game across 60 games this season, with recent form ahead of that at 0.9 over the last 10. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 38% of games this season. Our projection of 0.46 comes in under the market line of 0.5.

Next matchup

Next: @ MIL — their staff ranks 3 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +183 DraftKingsUnder 0.5 -210 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Willy Adames went over in 23 of 60 2026 games.

Our projection 0.46 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.04.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.523/6038%
1.56/6010%

Share of 2026 games Adames finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.90
Season avg
0.48

Over 0.5 in 7 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (27)
0.56
Away (33)
0.42
Home edge
+0.13

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-03-26vs NYY0Under
2026-03-27vs NYY0Under
2026-03-28vs NYY0Under
2026-03-31vs SD0Under
2026-04-01vs SD2Over
2026-04-01vs SD0Under
2026-04-03vs NYM0Under
2026-04-04vs NYM0Under
2026-04-05vs NYM0Under
2026-04-05vs NYM0Under
2026-04-07vs PHI1Over
2026-04-08vs PHI1Over
2026-04-08vs PHI2Over
2026-04-10vs BAL1Over
2026-04-11vs BAL0Under
2026-04-12vs BAL0Under
2026-04-14vs CIN1Over
2026-04-15vs CIN0Under
2026-04-16vs CIN0Under
2026-04-17vs WSH2Over
2026-04-18vs WSH1Over
2026-04-19vs WSH0Under
2026-04-22vs LAD1Over
2026-04-23vs LAD0Under
2026-04-23vs LAD0Under
2026-04-25vs MIA0Under
2026-04-25vs MIA0Under
2026-04-28vs PHI0Under
2026-04-29vs PHI0Under
2026-04-30vs PHI0Under
2026-05-01vs TB0Under
2026-05-02vs TB0Under
2026-05-03vs TB0Under
2026-05-05vs SD0Under
2026-05-06vs SD1Over
2026-05-06vs SD0Under
2026-05-09vs PIT1Over
2026-05-10vs PIT0Under
2026-05-10vs PIT0Under
2026-05-12vs LAD0Under
2026-05-13vs LAD1Over
2026-05-14vs LAD0Under
2026-05-15vs LAD0Under
2026-05-16vs ATH0Under
2026-05-17vs ATH0Under
2026-05-17vs ATH2Over
2026-05-19vs AZ1Over
2026-05-20vs AZ1Over
2026-05-20vs AZ0Under
2026-05-23vs CWS1Over
2026-05-23vs CWS1Over
2026-05-24vs CWS2Over
2026-05-25vs AZ1Over
2026-05-27vs AZ2Over
2026-05-27vs AZ1Over
2026-05-30vs COL0Under
2026-05-31vs COL0Under
2026-05-31vs COL1Over
2026-06-01vs MIL0Under
2026-06-02vs MIL1Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Willy Adames’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.