EdgeTake

DH · HOU

Yordan Alvarez — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
61
Runs
40
Per Game
0.66
Projection
0.49
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) sits at 0.66 runs per game through 61 games, trending up to 1 across the last 10. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 51% of games this season. Our projection of 0.49 lands right around the market line of 0.5.

Next matchup

Next: vs PIT — their staff ranks 13 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +105 BetMGMUnder 0.5 -140 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (betmgm), Yordan Alvarez went over in 31 of 61 2026 games.

Our projection 0.49 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.01.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.531/6151%
1.58/6113%

Share of 2026 games Alvarez finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
1.00
Season avg
0.66

Over 0.5 in 8 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (30)
0.80
Away (31)
0.52
Home edge
+0.28

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-03-26vs LAA0Under
2026-03-28vs LAA1Over
2026-03-28vs LAA1Over
2026-03-29vs LAA1Over
2026-03-31vs BOS1Over
2026-04-01vs BOS2Over
2026-04-01vs BOS2Over
2026-04-04vs ATH0Under
2026-04-04vs ATH1Over
2026-04-05vs ATH1Over
2026-04-07vs COL0Under
2026-04-08vs COL0Under
2026-04-08vs COL0Under
2026-04-11vs SEA1Over
2026-04-12vs SEA1Over
2026-04-12vs SEA0Under
2026-04-13vs SEA0Under
2026-04-15vs COL1Over
2026-04-16vs COL2Over
2026-04-17vs COL1Over
2026-04-18vs STL1Over
2026-04-18vs STL1Over
2026-04-19vs STL1Over
2026-04-20vs CLE0Under
2026-04-21vs CLE0Under
2026-04-22vs CLE1Over
2026-04-25vs NYY0Under
2026-04-25vs NYY0Under
2026-04-26vs NYY2Over
2026-04-28vs BAL0Under
2026-04-29vs BAL3Over
2026-04-30vs BAL0Under
2026-05-01vs BOS0Under
2026-05-02vs BOS0Under
2026-05-03vs BOS0Under
2026-05-05vs LAD1Over
2026-05-06vs LAD0Under
2026-05-06vs LAD0Under
2026-05-08vs CIN1Over
2026-05-09vs CIN0Under
2026-05-10vs CIN0Under
2026-05-12vs SEA0Under
2026-05-13vs SEA0Under
2026-05-14vs SEA0Under
2026-05-14vs SEA2Over
2026-05-16vs TEX0Under
2026-05-16vs TEX1Over
2026-05-17vs TEX0Under
2026-05-18vs MIN0Under
2026-05-19vs MIN0Under
2026-05-20vs MIN0Under
2026-05-22vs CHC0Under
2026-05-23vs CHC1Over
2026-05-25vs TEX1Over
2026-05-27vs TEX2Over
2026-05-28vs TEX2Over
2026-05-29vs TEX1Over
2026-05-30vs MIL1Over
2026-05-30vs MIL1Over
2026-05-31vs MIL0Under
2026-06-03vs PIT1Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Yordan Alvarez’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.