EdgeTake

3B · ATH

Zack Gelof — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
40
Home Runs
6
Per Game
0.15
Projection
0.11
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Zack Gelof (ATH) has averaged 0.15 home runs per game across 40 games this season, while recent form sits lower at 0 over the last 10. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 15% of games this season. We project 0.11, short of the 1.09 market line.

Next matchup

Next: @ CHC — their staff ranks 17 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +575 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Zack Gelof went over in 6 of 40 2026 games.

Our projection 0.11 vs market line 1.09 — edge -0.98.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.56/4015%

Share of 2026 games Gelof finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.00
Season avg
0.15

Over 0.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (22)
0.14
Away (18)
0.17
Home edge
-0.03

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-04-14vs TEX0Under
2026-04-15vs TEX0Under
2026-04-18vs CWS0Under
2026-04-18vs CWS0Under
2026-04-19vs CWS0Under
2026-04-21vs SEA0Under
2026-04-22vs SEA0Under
2026-04-25vs TEX1Over
2026-04-25vs TEX0Under
2026-04-29vs KC0Under
2026-04-30vs KC0Under
2026-04-30vs KC0Under
2026-05-02vs CLE0Under
2026-05-03vs CLE1Over
2026-05-05vs PHI0Under
2026-05-06vs PHI0Under
2026-05-07vs PHI1Over
2026-05-08vs BAL0Under
2026-05-09vs BAL0Under
2026-05-10vs BAL0Under
2026-05-13vs STL0Under
2026-05-14vs STL1Over
2026-05-14vs STL1Over
2026-05-16vs SF0Under
2026-05-17vs SF0Under
2026-05-17vs SF0Under
2026-05-19vs LAA0Under
2026-05-20vs LAA1Over
2026-05-21vs LAA0Under
2026-05-22vs LAA0Under
2026-05-23vs SD0Under
2026-05-24vs SD0Under
2026-05-24vs SD0Under
2026-05-26vs SEA0Under
2026-05-27vs SEA0Under
2026-05-27vs SEA0Under
2026-05-30vs NYY0Under
2026-05-31vs NYY0Under
2026-05-31vs NYY0Under
2026-06-03vs CHC0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Zack Gelof’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.