EdgeTake

1B · SEA

Josh Naylor — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
57
Runs
21
Per Game
0.37
Projection
0.51
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Over 57 games this season, Josh Naylor (SEA) is averaging 0.37 runs per game, with recent form ahead of that at 0.6 over the last 10. They've gone over 0.5 in 26% of those games. We project 0.51, about even with the market line of 0.5.

Next matchup

Next: @ DET — their staff ranks 12 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +165 BetMGMUnder 0.5 -192 DraftKings

At a line of 0.5 (betmgm), Josh Naylor went over in 15 of 57 2026 games.

Our projection 0.51 vs market line 0.5 — edge +0.01.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.515/5726%
1.55/579%

Share of 2026 games Naylor finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.60
Season avg
0.37

Over 0.5 in 5 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (32)
0.31
Away (25)
0.44
Home edge
-0.13

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-03-27vs CLE0Under
2026-03-28vs CLE0Under
2026-03-29vs CLE0Under
2026-03-29vs CLE0Under
2026-03-31vs NYY0Under
2026-04-01vs NYY0Under
2026-04-01vs NYY0Under
2026-04-04vs LAA0Under
2026-04-05vs LAA0Under
2026-04-05vs LAA0Under
2026-04-07vs TEX0Under
2026-04-08vs TEX0Under
2026-04-11vs HOU1Over
2026-04-12vs HOU0Under
2026-04-12vs HOU1Over
2026-04-13vs HOU2Over
2026-04-15vs SD0Under
2026-04-16vs SD0Under
2026-04-17vs SD0Under
2026-04-18vs TEX0Under
2026-04-18vs TEX0Under
2026-04-21vs ATH0Under
2026-04-22vs ATH0Under
2026-04-22vs ATH1Over
2026-04-25vs STL2Over
2026-04-25vs STL0Under
2026-04-27vs MIN0Under
2026-04-28vs MIN1Over
2026-04-29vs MIN0Under
2026-05-02vs KC0Under
2026-05-03vs KC0Under
2026-05-03vs KC0Under
2026-05-05vs ATL0Under
2026-05-06vs ATL0Under
2026-05-06vs ATL1Over
2026-05-08vs CWS3Over
2026-05-09vs CWS0Under
2026-05-10vs CWS0Under
2026-05-12vs HOU0Under
2026-05-13vs HOU0Under
2026-05-14vs HOU0Under
2026-05-14vs HOU0Under
2026-05-16vs SD0Under
2026-05-16vs SD2Over
2026-05-17vs SD0Under
2026-05-19vs CWS1Over
2026-05-20vs CWS0Under
2026-05-20vs CWS0Under
2026-05-23vs KC0Under
2026-05-24vs KC1Over
2026-05-26vs ATH2Over
2026-05-27vs ATH1Over
2026-05-27vs ATH1Over
2026-05-30vs AZ0Under
2026-05-31vs AZ0Under
2026-05-31vs AZ0Under
2026-06-02vs NYM1Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Josh Naylor’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.