1B · SEA
Josh Naylor — Runs
2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Over 57 games this season, Josh Naylor (SEA) is averaging 0.37 runs per game, with recent form ahead of that at 0.6 over the last 10. They've gone over 0.5 in 26% of those games. We project 0.51, about even with the market line of 0.5.
Next: @ DET — their staff ranks 12 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (betmgm), Josh Naylor went over in 15 of 57 2026 games.
Our projection 0.51 vs market line 0.5 — edge +0.01.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 15/57 | 26% |
| 1.5 | 5/57 | 9% |
Share of 2026 games Naylor finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 5 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Runs
| Date | Opp | Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-28 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-29 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-29 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-07 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs HOU | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-12 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs HOU | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-13 | vs HOU | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-15 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-16 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-17 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-21 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs ATH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-25 | vs STL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-25 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-27 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-28 | vs MIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-29 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-05 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs ATL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-08 | vs CWS | 3 | Over |
| 2026-05-09 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs SD | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-17 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-19 | vs CWS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-20 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-23 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs KC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-26 | vs ATH | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-27 | vs ATH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-27 | vs ATH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-30 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs NYM | 1 | Over |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Josh Naylor’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.