EdgeTake

SS · ATL

Mauricio Dubón — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
57
Home Runs
3
Per Game
0.05
Projection
0.07
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Mauricio Dubón (ATL) has averaged 0.05 home runs per game across 57 games this season, while recent form sits lower at 0 over the last 10. The over on 0.5 has hit in 5% of games. Our model projects 0.07, below the market line of 1.21.

Next matchup

Next: vs TOR — their staff ranks 10 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +850 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Mauricio Dubón went over in 3 of 57 2026 games.

Our projection 0.07 vs market line 1.21 — edge -1.14.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.53/575%

Share of 2026 games Dubón finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.00
Season avg
0.05

Over 0.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (26)
0.04
Away (31)
0.06
Home edge
-0.03

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-03-27vs KC0Under
2026-03-28vs KC0Under
2026-03-30vs ATH0Under
2026-03-31vs ATH0Under
2026-04-01vs ATH0Under
2026-04-03vs AZ1Over
2026-04-04vs AZ0Under
2026-04-04vs AZ0Under
2026-04-05vs AZ0Under
2026-04-07vs LAA1Over
2026-04-08vs LAA0Under
2026-04-08vs LAA0Under
2026-04-10vs CLE0Under
2026-04-11vs CLE0Under
2026-04-12vs CLE0Under
2026-04-13vs MIA0Under
2026-04-14vs MIA0Under
2026-04-15vs MIA0Under
2026-04-17vs PHI0Under
2026-04-18vs PHI0Under
2026-04-19vs PHI0Under
2026-04-21vs WSH0Under
2026-04-22vs WSH0Under
2026-04-23vs WSH0Under
2026-04-24vs PHI0Under
2026-04-25vs PHI0Under
2026-04-26vs PHI0Under
2026-04-28vs DET0Under
2026-04-29vs DET0Under
2026-04-30vs DET0Under
2026-05-02vs COL0Under
2026-05-03vs COL0Under
2026-05-03vs COL0Under
2026-05-05vs SEA0Under
2026-05-06vs SEA0Under
2026-05-06vs SEA0Under
2026-05-09vs LAD0Under
2026-05-10vs LAD0Under
2026-05-10vs LAD0Under
2026-05-12vs CHC0Under
2026-05-13vs CHC1Over
2026-05-14vs CHC0Under
2026-05-15vs BOS0Under
2026-05-16vs BOS0Under
2026-05-18vs MIA0Under
2026-05-19vs MIA0Under
2026-05-20vs MIA0Under
2026-05-21vs MIA0Under
2026-05-22vs WSH0Under
2026-05-23vs WSH0Under
2026-05-24vs WSH0Under
2026-05-26vs BOS0Under
2026-05-27vs BOS0Under
2026-05-28vs BOS0Under
2026-05-30vs CIN0Under
2026-05-31vs CIN0Under
2026-06-02vs TOR0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Mauricio Dubón’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.